A breakdown of Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath’s replies

  A breakdown of Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath’s replies.

The Minister had to navigate a high-pressure environment at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, particularly with Indian FM S. Jaishankar and probing journalists present.

Vijitha Herath’s Responses: 

A Strategic & Humanitarian Defense

Minister Herath’s approach was centered on "principled neutrality," ensuring Sri Lanka stayed above the geopolitical fray while fulfilling its global duties.

Prioritizing Humanity Over Politics:

Herath emphasized that Sri Lanka’s immediate reaction was a humanitarian rescue mission. By focusing on the 32 survivors rescued and the recovery of the deceased, he framed Sri Lanka’s actions as a moral obligation rather than a political statement. This effectively neutralized attempts to "trap" him into taking a side in the US-Iran-Israel conflict.

Adherence to International Law (UNCLOS):

When questioned about why the ship was in those waters or how the incident occurred, he repeatedly anchored his answers in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). By stating that Sri Lanka acted "strictly according to international maritime law," he shut down the narrative that Sri Lanka was being negligent or secretive.

Deflecting the "Security Failure" Narrative:

In response to suggestions that Sri Lanka was "left in the dark" about a US submarine operating so close to its coast, Herath remained composed. He focused on the distress signal received at 5:08 AM, highlighting that the Navy responded within the hour. This shifted the focus from military intelligence gaps to the efficiency and responsiveness of the Sri Lankan Navy.

Balancing Global Ties:

Herath managed to maintain a "balanced tightrope" act. He acknowledged the gravity of the situation (having even signed a condolence book for Iranian leaders) while simultaneously maintaining diplomatic dialogue with Israel and the US regarding the safety of Sri Lankans abroad. This showed him as a minister looking out for Sri Lankan interests first.

By refusing to speculate on "who gave the tip" or "who is at fault," Herath denied the interviewer the controversial headline they were seeking. He stayed disciplined, focusing on facts and international obligations, which is why the "trap" failed to snap shut.

The Final Stand: Herath’s Closing Replies

During the session "Heart of the Seas: 

The Future of the Indian Ocean," the Minister was repeatedly pressed on the "repatriation dilemma"—specifically whether the US was leaning on Sri Lanka to keep the Iranian survivors as "detainees" rather than returning them to Tehran.

Herath’s closing remarks were a masterclass in "The Strategic Pivot":

The "International Law" Shield: Every time the journalist tried to frame the issue as a choice between the US and Iran, Herath responded:

"We have taken all the steps according to international laws and our treaty obligations."

By repeating this, he refused to acknowledge "pressure," effectively signaling that Sri Lanka is a sovereign state that follows a rulebook, not a phone call from a superpower.

The Humanitarian High Ground: He concluded by shifting the focus back to the 32 survivors currently in Galle and the 219 crew members from the IRIS Bushehr in Trincomalee. He framed Sri Lanka as a "Responsible Guardian of the Indian Ocean," stating that the rescue and care of these sailors was a "humane necessity" that overrode geopolitical squabbles.

 When the conversation touched on how the ships were tracked he didn't bite. He instead praised the Sri Lankan Navy’s responsiveness, moving the credit away from foreign intelligence and back to Sri Lankan domestic capability.

Why this was a "Win" for Herath

He protected the President's stance: He stayed perfectly aligned with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s invocation of the Hague Convention. The journalist’s frustration became the story. By not giving a "Yes" or "No" regarding US pressure, he prevented a diplomatic firestorm.

He maintained "Principled Neutrality" of Sri lanka. He managed to satisfy the Iranian side by providing rescue and medical care, while not technically violating any Western "red lines" by citing international maritime law.

Ajith:

Blue Economy: 

Herath is focusing on the "blue economy" as a critical, sustainable, and collaborative approach to regional economic growth, specifically leveraging the Indian Ocean for maritime security, trade, and environmental sustainability amidst post-crisis recover.

Predicting the future by art - in this case films

 

I am watching film series 'Tehran' these days. And it is fascinating how often art seems to rehearse reality before it actually happens. While there isn't a single official "film" that linked an attack on Iran to COVID-19 as a singular conspiracy, there are several striking examples of predictive programming—where media "forecasts" specific geopolitical or medical crises.

The Tehran Parallel (Iran & Nuclear Conflict)

The series Tehran (released in 2020) is often cited as the most "psychic" show on television right now. It follows a Mossad agent attempting to disable Iran’s nuclear reactor.The show depicted Mossad agents operating with ease inside Iran, sabotaging air defenses and nuclear sites.During the years the show aired, several high-profile real events mirrored its plot, including the 2020 assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (via a remote-controlled machine gun) and actual explosions at the Natanz nuclear facility.

As of 2024–2026, the direct exchanges between Israel and Iran have reached levels of intensity that the show’s creators admit is "racing ahead" of their scripts.The series focuses on the Mossad’s efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program—specifically the Natanz enrichment facility. 

The show's fiction collided with real-world events very interstingly.

The Sabotage Loop (2020-2021): Just as Season 1 aired (depicting cyber-attacks on Iranian infrastructure), the real Natanz facility suffered a series of mysterious "accidents," including a major power failure and an explosion in the centrifuge hall that intelligence experts attributed to Mossad cyber-warfare.

The "Exploding Phone" Plot: In Season 2, a high-ranking Iranian official is assassinated using a rigged mobile phone. In late 2024, the world saw a real-world version of this on a massive scale during the "pager and walkie-talkie attacks" in Lebanon, which targeted Hezbollah using similar technology.

The 2025–2026 Conflict: While Season 3 (filmed in 2023) focused on a direct "race to the bomb," the real world caught up in June 2025 with a 12-day war involving U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. By March 2026, operations like "Epic Fury" have mirrored the show's climax, with direct strikes on Tehran and the targeting of Iran's leadership.

The COVID-19 "Blueprint" (Contagion)

When the pandemic hit, the 2011 film Contagion became the most-watched movie in the world because it felt less like fiction and more like a documentary.It famously predicted the bat-to-pig-to-human transmission of a respiratory virus in a Chinese wet market.It also accurately "predicted" the rise of social distancing, the "R-naught" (R_0) factor, the scarcity of medical supplies, and even the spread of online conspiracy theories and fake cures.

 The 1995 film Outbreak also explored a similar theme, though Contagion is generally considered the "scientific" prediction of COVID-19. And then the Film "Utopia" (2013/2020) and man made virus. This British (and later American) series revolves around a graphic novel that predicts various man-made viruses and a global vaccine conspiracy designed to sterilize the population.

Other films I can think of: 

The Lone Gunmen (2001): The pilot episode of this X-Files spin-off featured a plot where a secret government agency hijacks a passenger plane via remote control to crash it into the World Trade Center to spark a war. It aired only six months before September 11th.

Wag the Dog - 1997 - This film follows a U.S. President who "invents" a fake war in Albania to distract the public from a sex scandal. Shortly after its release, President Bill Clinton ordered strikes on Sudan and Afghanistan during the height of the Lewinsky scandal.

The Simpsons - Famous for "predicting" the Trump Presidency (in 2000), the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and the Disney-Fox merger.

White Noise - 2022 - Filmed in Ohio, it depicted a train derailment causing a "toxic airborne event." A nearly identical train derailment happened in East Palestine, Ohio, just months after the movie's release.

The China Syndrome" (1979): This thriller about a nuclear meltdown at a power plant was released just 12 days before the real-life Three Mile Island nuclear accident—the worst in U.S. history.

Enemy of the State (1998) – Showing the NSA surveillance state more like Orwellian nature.

Before Edward Snowden made global headlines in 2013, this film depicted the National Security Agency (NSA) using satellites, cell phone tracking, and total digital surveillance to hunt a citizen.The film predicted the massive expansion of the surveillance state under the Patriot Act and the PRISM program,which weren't public knowledge for over a decade after the film's release.

Why Films "Predict" the Future: The Statistics of Probability

The "Billion Monkeys" Theory (The "Billion Monkeys" Theory, more accurately known in mathematics as the Infinite Monkey Theorem, is a thought experiment stating that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare. - google )

With roughly 2,500 to 3,000 films released globally every year, and thousands more hours of TV, the "law of large numbers" suggests that some plots must eventually overlap with reality. (The law of large numbers (LLN) states that as the number of independent, identical trials increases, their average result approaches the expected theoretical mean. This theorem guarantees long-term stability in random events, meaning larger sample sizes produce results that better reflect the true underlying probability, reducing the impact of extreme outliers-google ) 

The pilot episode of The X-Files spin-off The Lone Gunmen (which aired on March 4, 2001, six months before the September 11 attacks) featured a plot in which rogue members of the U.S. government remotely hijack a commercial airliner with the intention of crashing it into the World Trade Center. While it seems psychic, the World Trade Center had already been bombed in 1993. Writers were simply looking at the most obvious high-value target in the U.S.

Many shows, including Tehran and The Americans, hire former intelligence officers as consultants. The CIA has an Entertainment Industry Liaison office. Their job is to help filmmakers portray the agency accurately, which often leads to scripts that reflect real-world geopolitical "war games" currently being discussed in Langley or Tel Aviv.

I think most researchers and film buffs call this "Art Imitating Life" (or vice versa). Writers often consult with intelligence experts, scientists, and futurists to make their stories believable. Sometimes, they just happen to be right because they are looking at the same data and tensions that exist in the real world.

- Ajith Dharma 02/03/2026