Quantum_Life: May 2020

Sunday, 17 May 2020

St. Peters-berg to Moscow Train Journey 10 - Approaching Moscow

Approaching Moscow

Sunday, 10 May 2020

The Beautiful Essence Of Lock Down

my sister called me,

brother,

it's over thirty thousand

are you not afraid

to live there

mother just spoke to me

we are all afraid

for you

my dear sister,

it's over thirty thousand

we have a problem

or maybe not

johnson is a bit late,

he was hurrying

at lightening speed

to get us out of

big bad europe

but the response to covid

is going at slower pace

can't you see the

cheeky turtle

who defeated that

lazy running hare

i will speak to mum

she is afraid too,

my dearest son,

our dear president

accepts all, who are arriving

from far abroad

are you crazy mum,

leave daughters and her

how

even if i could

they would never come

today with our neighbours

we are having a barbecue

i hope you don't mind

if i smoke a cigar

father used to smoke

those smelly jaffna cigars

what a fine smell, but if i had them,

covid 19 would die of that smell

by the way, I am

dancing with my wife

to those old tunes

we used to listen to

when we were dating

do whatever

you never listened to me anyway

i was worshiping the gods

and lord buddha

begged them to save you

from this nasty illness

death can come to anybody

at anytime mum

it could come today or tomorrow

or even in ten years

if i can

i will come in august

to see you

oh, i didn't tell mum this

life is here

to feel the joyous moments

instead of suffering,

rather than living

in fear of darkness

let's live in the moment

happily ever after

you don't need

a whiskey single malt

or roasted meat and cigar havana,

it's enough to have

some coconut toddy,

tapioca maiyok and chili paste

giveth one

the same happiness

wherever you are

The Beautiful Essence Of

Lock Down

Picture is from this site

Friday, 8 May 2020

Easing the Lock Down

***********************

(If you re going to get upset with these numbers please walk away from the post)

Prime minister Boris Johnson's Government will take a decision on easing the lockdown on Sunday. I was doing some calculations since 1st of March and this is my recent calculations and predictions.

As you can see from the pictures people generally do not worry about the pandemic much. They do play in the parks and I have seen most were in groups without any social distancing. I did not take close pictures as to respect the privacy.

For the following calculations several assumptions were made:

1. People would largely ignore the lockdown rules.

2. Most retails shops, pubs and restaurants are open.

3. Reproduction value is 1.1 and everyday one person would infect at least one other person.

Today the 8th of May we have 211,364 covid-19 infected patients. The Increase from yesterday's total was 4649. Number of deaths were 31,241. If we take the reproduction value as 1.1 (this is the closest number I arrived looking at the data from 1st of March) tomorrow the number of patients would increase to 216,478 patients. This number will grow close to 259,900 by the 15th of May. Predicted number of deaths would be 38,400. (as a proportional increment) Do not forget that we will have asymptomatic carriers and their number would also increase by twofold.

As lockdown eases we will have the infection rate increase briefly. On the 26th of May we would have close to 450,000 infected. Number of predicted deaths would be close to 59,000 to 60,000. However curve should be going down by then. We may have unrecognised patients upto 900,000 if reproduction value is 2.2 by then. But if we carry on with reproduction value of 1.1, then by the 07th of June we will have over one million infected. But in this case if we are not careful the number of deaths may rise upto 90,000. However, by this time curve should have downward trend.

By the time we reach 3.5 million infected number of deaths may rise up to 150,000. These figures can only be true if the country will go back to work fully and all the pubs and restaurants are open. I think the only way to stop this is happening is to increase number of testing by tenfold and enforce social distancing whenever possible.

This number of infected will rise to 8 million by the 30th of June. With the symptomatic carriers this figure could be even 16 million. However by this time the number of deaths should be around 200,000. Even though this number is high, the rate of infections and deaths would be going down significantly by then. This figure may well be the maximum number of deaths we may reach. This is only a prediction and it is quite possible that number of deaths may not reach to this level.

Wednesday, 6 May 2020

Flexibility of Capitalism and world's oldest profession in "Corona Time"

I remember reading about women who were kept as "City beauties" in India. They were high class escort girls. They went out with Kings, Princes and rich tradesman. They could read, write, sing and dance. In victorian England, despite high moral crusades there were many brothels and prostitutes. These days coronavirus pandemic caused most self employed people lay down their tools of trade.. Sex workers were the ones perhaps hit the most hardest as they cannot engage in their normal activity to earn money. They cannot request government help as they are not recognised as workers. they don't pay any government taxes.

However there is a social media aspect in this trade as well. They can engage in cyber sex in vitual space and still earn some money. I heard that type of sites earning more than any other retail sites.

As the pictures below shows, men and even women paying for certain services that one or two women can engage. Perhaps they would keep safe distance. perhaps two is not a crowd.

Capitalism gave them a chance where socialism would have failed. Why is that?

These pictures were taken from twitter account of Whores of Yore. These City girls were from victorian England.