Easing the Lock Down

Easing the Lock Down 

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(If you re going to get upset with these numbers please walk away from the post) 

Prime minister Boris Johnson's  Government will take a decision on easing the lockdown on Sunday. I was doing some calculations since 1st of March and this is my recent calculations and predictions.

As you can see from the pictures people generally do not worry about the pandemic much. They do play in the parks and I have seen most were in groups without any social distancing. I did not take close pictures as to respect the privacy.

For the following calculations several assumptions were made:

1. People would largely ignore the lockdown rules.

2. Most retails shops, pubs and restaurants are open.

3. Reproduction value is 1.1 and everyday one person would  infect at least one other person.

Today the 8th of May we have 211,364 covid-19 infected patients.  The Increase from yesterday's total was 4649.  Number of deaths were 31,241. If we take the reproduction value as 1.1 (this is the closest number I arrived looking at the data from 1st of March) tomorrow the number of  patients would increase to 216,478 patients. This  number will grow close to 259,900 by the 15th of May.  Predicted number of deaths would be 38,400. (as a proportional increment) Do not forget that we will have asymptomatic carriers and their number would also increase by twofold. 

As lockdown  eases we will have the infection rate increase briefly.  On the 26th of May we would  have close to 450,000 infected. Number of predicted deaths would be close to 59,000 to 60,000.  However curve should be going down by then.  We may have unrecognised patients upto 900,000 if reproduction value is 2.2 by then. But if we carry on with reproduction value of 1.1, then  by the 07th of June we will have over one million infected. But in this case if we are not careful the  number of deaths may rise upto 90,000. However, by this time curve  should have downward trend.

By the time we reach 3.5 million infected number of deaths may rise up to 150,000. These figures can only be true if the country will go back to work fully and all the pubs and restaurants are open. I think the only way to stop this is happening is to increase number of testing by tenfold and enforce social distancing whenever possible.

This number of infected will rise to 8 million by the 30th of June. With the symptomatic carriers this figure could be even 16 million. However by this time the number of deaths should be around 200,000. Even though this number is high, the rate of infections and deaths would  be going down significantly by then. This figure may well be the  maximum number of deaths we may reach. This is only a prediction and it is quite possible that number of deaths may not reach to this level.