New Empires in the Making: The End of the Post-War Order with Putin and Trump

 

The Greenland Precedent and the End of NATO

The modern geopolitical landscape is held together by a web of alliances, treaties, and the principle of state sovereignty. However, a shift toward spheres of influence—where superpowers claim "neighborhoods" as their own—could dismantle this order, giving rise to a new era of global empires.

The idea of a superpower "purchasing" or claiming a sovereign territory like Greenland sets a dangerous precedent. It signals a move away from diplomacy and toward territorial acquisition. Such a move would likely be the final blow for NATO.

If the United States prioritizes land acquisition and isolationism over collective defense, the alliance loses its foundational trust. Without the American security umbrella, the "Transatlantic" era ends, leaving Europe to fend for itself.

The Rise of the New American Empire

If a U.S. administration focuses on a "near abroad" policy—asserting direct control over the Western Hemisphere, including nations like Venezuela—it marks the birth of a New American Empire. This isn't just influence; it's a return to 19th-century geopolitics where the U.S. treats the Americas as its private domain, discarding international law in favor of raw power.

The New Russian and Chinese Domains

In a world without NATO, the gates fly open for expansionist powers:

• The Russian Empire Reborn: Without Western intervention, the conflict in Ukraine could end with total or partial annexation by Moscow. From there, the "domino effect" takes hold. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, and Moldova could fall back under a Russian sphere of influence, effectively rebuilding the footprint of the old Soviet Union or the Tsarist Empire.
• China’s Pacific Hegemony: If the U.S. retreats into its own hemisphere, Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations would likely be absorbed into a Chinese-led order. China would become the undisputed master of the Pacific, dictate trade routes, and command the "near abroad" of its coastal waters.

Regional Shifts: India and the Subcontinent

The collapse of global policing would force regional powers to consolidate their borders. In this scenario, India might feel compelled to assert direct control over its neighbors—Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and others—to ensure its own security and resource stability. This would create a South Asian empire, mirroring the actions of the other three giants.

The Result I think would be a fragmented world

My vision suggests a world carved into four massive blocks:

• The American Empire (The Americas)
• The New Russian Empire (Eastern Europe and Central Asia)
• The Chinese Empire (East Asia and the Pacific)
• The Indian Sphere (South Asia)

The Casualties of Change:

• Europe: Once a global powerhouse, a "lost Europe" would be caught between the Russian and American spheres, struggling to maintain its identity without a unified military.
• Great Britain: The former "Empire on which the sun never set" would find itself a mid-sized island nation, disconnected from its old allies and overshadowed by the new four-way global split.

We are standing at a crossroads. If the world abandons the rule of law for the rule of the strong, the map of the 21st century will look less like a collection of nations and more like a battlefield of four empires..The transition from a globalized economy to one dominated by four regional empires would trigger a radical shift in how wealth, resources, and power flow across the planet. This isn't just a change in borders; it’s a rewrite of the global financial rules that have existed since 1945.

1. The Death of the Petrodollar

For decades, the "Petrodollar" system—where oil is bought and sold globally using the U.S. Dollar—has been the backbone of American economic power.

• Fragmentation: If the world splits into empires, Russia and China would likely demand payments in their own currencies (the Ruble or Yuan) for energy and goods.
• Loss of Privilege: The U.S. would lose its "exorbitant privilege" of printing money to fund deficits. Without global demand for the dollar to buy oil, the U.S. could face higher interest rates and a permanent increase in the cost of imported goods.

2. The Rise of "Fortress Economics"

• In a world of four empires, "Free Trade" is replaced by "Fortress Economics." Each empire would prioritize its own "Near Abroad" for resources:
• American Empire: Focuses on securing lithium from South America and oil from Venezuela, creating a closed-loop supply chain in the Western Hemisphere.
• Russian/Chinese Blocs: They would control the "Silk Road" routes, dominating the flow of critical minerals and energy across Eurasia.
• India’s Hub: India would likely become the manufacturing and service hub for the Indian Ocean, leveraging its control over Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to dominate regional maritime trade.

3. Supply Chain "Patchwork"

The "Just-in-Time" delivery system that makes products cheap today would collapse.

Higher Costs: Everything—from smartphones to cars—would become more expensive as supply chains are "on-shored" or "friend-shored" within imperial borders.

Technological Divides: We might see the end of a single internet or universal tech standards. You could have a "Russian/Chinese Web" and an "American/Indian Web," with devices that aren't compatible across imperial lines.

4. The Fate of "Lost Europe" and Britain

Without a unified military or a clear imperial sphere, Europe and the UK would face an economic identity crisis:

The UK: Stripped of its role as a financial bridge between the U.S. and Europe, Britain might struggle to find a "node" to attach to, potentially becoming a vassal state to the American Empire just to maintain its standard of living.

Europe: Caught between the Russian energy giant and the American tech/security giant, Europe might see its industries hollowed out as it pays higher costs for everything from defense to fuel.

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"A tipical morning" would actually feel like for a regular person living in this new world of four empires.

Life in the Four Empires: The "New Normal"

In this world, the freedom of the 2000s—where you could buy anything from anywhere and travel almost anywhere—is replaced by Imperial Citizenship.

The "Splinternet": Instead of one World Wide Web, you’d likely use a regional network. If you live in the Russian Empire, your social media, search engines, and news are filtered through Moscow’s servers. In the American Empire, "Silicon Valley" becomes a closed ecosystem, perhaps blocked in the Chinese Empire, which uses its own advanced "Great Firewall" apps for everything from banking to dating.

Travel and "Internal" Passports: Crossing from the American Empire to the Chinese Empire wouldn't just be a flight; it would be a major diplomatic event. Movement within your empire (e.g., a Pole traveling to Moscow, or a Brazilian traveling to New York) might be easy, but the borders between the "Four Giants" would be heavily fortified and digitally monitored.

The Shopping Cart Shift: Brand loyalty becomes political. Buying a "foreign" phone or car could be seen as an act of disloyalty—or simply impossible due to massive tariffs. You buy what your empire makes.

The "Buffer Zone" Reality: For people in "Lost Europe" or the UK, life is a balancing act. You might work for an American company but pay for Russian heating and drive a Chinese car, always worried that a change in imperial weather could ruin your local economy.

This will be  a world that is more stable in one sense (no more small "proxy" wars everywhere) but much more rigid. The "Empire" provides security and jobs, but at the cost of personal choice and global connection.

It’s a return to a "balanced globe of human beings," but one where the walls are much higher than they used to be.

Ajith Dharma - 20/01/2026