Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly

First Article:

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already admitted that Britain is in a crisis, and today he warned people to stay in self-isolation. He is absolutely correct, and perhaps most people know that already however there are a few who are still roaming the almost empty streets. To be clear, I am not writing this to make people upset or to give them an excuse to go and do some more panic buying.

I like to  do some number crunching and understand what the data is actually saying to me. Data from a few days ago shows that the relationship between the increase in infections and the death rate was directly proportionate. However, more recent data now shows that the relationship is exponential, as shown by the graphs below.

When this outbreak first came to greater attention a month ago, many pointed out that the rate of recovery was 97%. Many believed people should do as they please or that this will all blow over soon. I am also an eternal optimist but it is time to take this seriously.

Now, the death rate stands at 4.36% worldwide because of the Coronavirus. This means that if 100,000 people catch it, 4200 of them would die. China passed their peak sometime ago, and now it is Italy's turn. Two days ago, their number of deaths almost reached 800, and their total so far is already around 6000. My heart goes out to Italy and her people.

Last week I predicted that by the end of the month, the total number of infections in the UK would be around 12,000. However, with new figures coming in, I now see that the number could reach between 17,000 - 22,000 by the 1st of April.

To those who are still not convinced, the pictures and graphs below verify these predictions. The WHO predicted that each infected individual would pass the virus to 2.2 other people (the .2 here is also important). You can see how fast the number of cases would increase here:

Total number is increasing in a pattern of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc...

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
infected	1	2.2	4.4	8.8	17.6	35.2

 7 - 70.4
Crucially, as I mentioned earlier, the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths now show exponential characteristics. Therefore, I must update my prediction of the number of deaths by the end of this month to around 1046. After this, the UK will enter the peak of the infection.

This means that people who are most at risk should be especially careful in the period after the 1st of April. The only way to successfully reduce the peak is via social distancing and self isolation. Please do not try to gain immunity by having it.

Please remember that even if you recover, you may still end up with long-lasting damage to your lungs and even your liver or kidneys. Below I have attached articles based on scientific studies that outline how the Coronavirus is developing and how can affect you.

No one can be complacent about this.

Don't forget that this virus is mutating and the second strain is more aggressive than the first. It infected 70% of the people tested.

Happy Mother's Day to you all. If your parents are over 70, the best way to save your elderly mother is to do as Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises and just call her instead of visiting.

Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

Here’s What Happens to the Body After Contracting the Coronavirus

My previous article.

Kenny Rogers Good buy to a legend

Kenny Rogers 

I found out about Kenny Rogers' music after my friend Amara introduced me to the Listeners Afternoon Programme by the SLBC English Service. I think the presenter of the programme was one of the family of Coreas, and he always played nice songs from Engelbert Humperdink, Leo Sayer, etc. However, the country singer Kenny Rogers was one of my favourites.

While in the Soviet Union, we had a turntable in our room and I bought many records (some of which I still have) that were popular at the time - Kenny Rogers' among them. Selling his records in the Soviet Union was fortunately allowed, and they were even mass produced. I also had some cassettes of his music but because we have Youtube now, all of them were thrown out.

Kenny came from a poor family in Texas and turned into a world icon. His music was always very soothing and managed to lift your spirits - he entertained a whole generation with his songs. One of my favourite songs was "Island in the stream", sung with Dolly Parton.

Thank you, Kenny Rogers. You gave us many memorable songs and beautiful hours to cherish throughout our lives.

RIP Kenny Rogers

Song that I like: 'She believes in me'

From Corona to Socialism ??

Nalbandian, Dmitri Arkadevich - Collective farm Girl

While applauding Chancellor Rishi Sunak's "bending towards socialism" spending budget and money allocated for small businesses I cannot but think about the reason for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's reluctant to close schools is quite clear. (Schools will be closed from Friday). Main question was, WHO is going to look after the children? Unlike some Asian countries where grand parents are readily available to look after the offspring, in UK it's an expensive affair. Government cannot afford to lose NHS staff, Police and other essential workers if they are going to stay at home looking after the children

I was talking to a friend of mine and told him the answer lies with  Soviet union's method of looking after the children. They had child care centers where parents can leave even the smallest children safely. I remember in East Germany had similar child care centers. Child care workers who worked were highly educated unlike UK. Most of them had university diplomas (degree level education).

Yes, there were lot of problems in former Soviet union. We know that. That's why it collapsed. However, we can still absorb the good parts. 
This is one of them.

Other one was chicken. We hate soviet chicken, literally.
Very difficult to cut. We thought the meat was difficult to eat, like rubber. 

Someone has said that, they were keeping these chicken in freezers for 6-7 months to face nuclear war or similar disaster and releasing them to people when they are near to expire. According to him, that's why these chicken are like that.

I know now the answer. They were from collective farms. (yes, we don't like them. ok) Chicken were reared such a way that they were organic. Unlike broiler chicken or 28 day chicken we eat nowadays these chicken were reared allowing them to roam the farm land, like village chicken one could find in countries like  Sri lanka.

Third point was that a Russian man or babushka (old grand ma) carrying same old bag each time when they went to a shop or market. I remember we actually laughed at it. These bags look old and not so cool to us. We carried  plastic bags we took  from western capitals proudly.

Beautiful ladies carried these plastic bags with admiration.

And, I am now carrying same recycling old bag each time when I  to go to supermarket. because we are destroying our climate.
This is New cool.

And my friend moans again. 
"Ajith, you always talked about Soviet union and blaming us for it's demise.

What we have done?"

I relied to him.
"Nothing,"

We, including I simply did nothing. 

Picture was copied from here: The Collective Farm Girl