Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly

First Article:

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already admitted that Britain is in a crisis, and today he warned people to stay in self-isolation. He is absolutely correct, and perhaps most people know that already however there are a few who are still roaming the almost empty streets. To be clear, I am not writing this to make people upset or to give them an excuse to go and do some more panic buying.

I like to  do some number crunching and understand what the data is actually saying to me. Data from a few days ago shows that the relationship between the increase in infections and the death rate was directly proportionate. However, more recent data now shows that the relationship is exponential, as shown by the graphs below.

When this outbreak first came to greater attention a month ago, many pointed out that the rate of recovery was 97%. Many believed people should do as they please or that this will all blow over soon. I am also an eternal optimist but it is time to take this seriously.

Now, the death rate stands at 4.36% worldwide because of the Coronavirus. This means that if 100,000 people catch it, 4200 of them would die. China passed their peak sometime ago, and now it is Italy's turn. Two days ago, their number of deaths almost reached 800, and their total so far is already around 6000. My heart goes out to Italy and her people.

Last week I predicted that by the end of the month, the total number of infections in the UK would be around 12,000. However, with new figures coming in, I now see that the number could reach between 17,000 - 22,000 by the 1st of April.

To those who are still not convinced, the pictures and graphs below verify these predictions. The WHO predicted that each infected individual would pass the virus to 2.2 other people (the .2 here is also important). You can see how fast the number of cases would increase here:

Total number is increasing in a pattern of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc...

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
infected	1	2.2	4.4	8.8	17.6	35.2

 7 - 70.4
Crucially, as I mentioned earlier, the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths now show exponential characteristics. Therefore, I must update my prediction of the number of deaths by the end of this month to around 1046. After this, the UK will enter the peak of the infection.

This means that people who are most at risk should be especially careful in the period after the 1st of April. The only way to successfully reduce the peak is via social distancing and self isolation. Please do not try to gain immunity by having it.

Please remember that even if you recover, you may still end up with long-lasting damage to your lungs and even your liver or kidneys. Below I have attached articles based on scientific studies that outline how the Coronavirus is developing and how can affect you.

No one can be complacent about this.

Don't forget that this virus is mutating and the second strain is more aggressive than the first. It infected 70% of the people tested.

Happy Mother's Day to you all. If your parents are over 70, the best way to save your elderly mother is to do as Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises and just call her instead of visiting.

Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

Here’s What Happens to the Body After Contracting the Coronavirus

My previous article.