Problem with statistics ?

Please don't read this if the number of deaths from Covid-19 is stressing you out.

A blogger was suggesting that we take the Reproduction number 'R0' for statistical calculations as 1.5 (minimum value). The value for my initial calculations was 2.2 (middle value for R0). Using that value, I had predicted the number of infections and deaths in the UK by the 31st of March at 25141, with an increase of 3000 cases and 380 deaths (proportional value).

I just checked the news and found out that the number of deaths is 381 and the number of infections has passed 25,000, which is very sad.

My point is that we should all insist on the government to start carrying out Covid-19 tests for everyone suspected of having the virus. If found positive, they should be sent to the hospital. Also, anyone who has tested positive for immunity should return to work in order to save the economy. Others have to stay at home and stop the spread of the virus.

There are three people I know who have passed away from this virus in UK. For me, it has already become personal.

Picture: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like COVID-19

Is Germany doing better?

Germany seems to be doing something right among her neighbors namely Italy and Spain. Germany started separating people early on. With proper medical attention, Germany started doing tests for all the citizens who were suspected of having Covid-19. The result of this strategy is that, although the increase in infections shows an exponential nature, Germany's death rate is low.

It seems that by the end of this month Germany will reach the 60,000 (plus/minus 1000) mark for the number of infections. This is mainly due to some people who are ignoring the government's advice and shopping and travelling freely. However, the German government has now banned all travelling within states and cities. Also the fact that the number of people who have died from the coronavirus so far stands at 94. It looks like the number of deaths would be limited to around 200 plus/minus 20 by the end of this month. Well done to Germany.

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly

First Article:

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already admitted that Britain is in a crisis, and today he warned people to stay in self-isolation. He is absolutely correct, and perhaps most people know that already however there are a few who are still roaming the almost empty streets. To be clear, I am not writing this to make people upset or to give them an excuse to go and do some more panic buying.

I like to  do some number crunching and understand what the data is actually saying to me. Data from a few days ago shows that the relationship between the increase in infections and the death rate was directly proportionate. However, more recent data now shows that the relationship is exponential, as shown by the graphs below.

When this outbreak first came to greater attention a month ago, many pointed out that the rate of recovery was 97%. Many believed people should do as they please or that this will all blow over soon. I am also an eternal optimist but it is time to take this seriously.

Now, the death rate stands at 4.36% worldwide because of the Coronavirus. This means that if 100,000 people catch it, 4200 of them would die. China passed their peak sometime ago, and now it is Italy's turn. Two days ago, their number of deaths almost reached 800, and their total so far is already around 6000. My heart goes out to Italy and her people.

Last week I predicted that by the end of the month, the total number of infections in the UK would be around 12,000. However, with new figures coming in, I now see that the number could reach between 17,000 - 22,000 by the 1st of April.

To those who are still not convinced, the pictures and graphs below verify these predictions. The WHO predicted that each infected individual would pass the virus to 2.2 other people (the .2 here is also important). You can see how fast the number of cases would increase here:

Total number is increasing in a pattern of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc...

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
infected	1	2.2	4.4	8.8	17.6	35.2

 7 - 70.4
Crucially, as I mentioned earlier, the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths now show exponential characteristics. Therefore, I must update my prediction of the number of deaths by the end of this month to around 1046. After this, the UK will enter the peak of the infection.

This means that people who are most at risk should be especially careful in the period after the 1st of April. The only way to successfully reduce the peak is via social distancing and self isolation. Please do not try to gain immunity by having it.

Please remember that even if you recover, you may still end up with long-lasting damage to your lungs and even your liver or kidneys. Below I have attached articles based on scientific studies that outline how the Coronavirus is developing and how can affect you.

No one can be complacent about this.

Don't forget that this virus is mutating and the second strain is more aggressive than the first. It infected 70% of the people tested.

Happy Mother's Day to you all. If your parents are over 70, the best way to save your elderly mother is to do as Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises and just call her instead of visiting.

Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

Here’s What Happens to the Body After Contracting the Coronavirus

My previous article.

Kenny Rogers Good buy to a legend

Kenny Rogers 

I found out about Kenny Rogers' music after my friend Amara introduced me to the Listeners Afternoon Programme by the SLBC English Service. I think the presenter of the programme was one of the family of Coreas, and he always played nice songs from Engelbert Humperdink, Leo Sayer, etc. However, the country singer Kenny Rogers was one of my favourites.

While in the Soviet Union, we had a turntable in our room and I bought many records (some of which I still have) that were popular at the time - Kenny Rogers' among them. Selling his records in the Soviet Union was fortunately allowed, and they were even mass produced. I also had some cassettes of his music but because we have Youtube now, all of them were thrown out.

Kenny came from a poor family in Texas and turned into a world icon. His music was always very soothing and managed to lift your spirits - he entertained a whole generation with his songs. One of my favourite songs was "Island in the stream", sung with Dolly Parton.

Thank you, Kenny Rogers. You gave us many memorable songs and beautiful hours to cherish throughout our lives.

RIP Kenny Rogers

Song that I like: 'She believes in me'

From Corona to Socialism ??

Nalbandian, Dmitri Arkadevich - Collective farm Girl

While applauding Chancellor Rishi Sunak's "bending towards socialism" spending budget and money allocated for small businesses I cannot but think about the reason for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's reluctant to close schools is quite clear. (Schools will be closed from Friday). Main question was, WHO is going to look after the children? Unlike some Asian countries where grand parents are readily available to look after the offspring, in UK it's an expensive affair. Government cannot afford to lose NHS staff, Police and other essential workers if they are going to stay at home looking after the children

I was talking to a friend of mine and told him the answer lies with  Soviet union's method of looking after the children. They had child care centers where parents can leave even the smallest children safely. I remember in East Germany had similar child care centers. Child care workers who worked were highly educated unlike UK. Most of them had university diplomas (degree level education).

Yes, there were lot of problems in former Soviet union. We know that. That's why it collapsed. However, we can still absorb the good parts. 
This is one of them.

Other one was chicken. We hate soviet chicken, literally.
Very difficult to cut. We thought the meat was difficult to eat, like rubber. 

Someone has said that, they were keeping these chicken in freezers for 6-7 months to face nuclear war or similar disaster and releasing them to people when they are near to expire. According to him, that's why these chicken are like that.

I know now the answer. They were from collective farms. (yes, we don't like them. ok) Chicken were reared such a way that they were organic. Unlike broiler chicken or 28 day chicken we eat nowadays these chicken were reared allowing them to roam the farm land, like village chicken one could find in countries like  Sri lanka.

Third point was that a Russian man or babushka (old grand ma) carrying same old bag each time when they went to a shop or market. I remember we actually laughed at it. These bags look old and not so cool to us. We carried  plastic bags we took  from western capitals proudly.

Beautiful ladies carried these plastic bags with admiration.

And, I am now carrying same recycling old bag each time when I  to go to supermarket. because we are destroying our climate.
This is New cool.

And my friend moans again. 
"Ajith, you always talked about Soviet union and blaming us for it's demise.

What we have done?"

I relied to him.
"Nothing,"

We, including I simply did nothing. 

Picture was copied from here: The Collective Farm Girl

Corona cannot defeat us

All four of us sit together yesterday after long time. Both daughters were busy with studies for long. They are doing A/level and elder one Shania is always busy  with her arts. Well we start discussing Corona. Yes, that one. Then it’s happened that I had Grease – theatrical musical later turn into a cinema with John Travolta  as Danny and Olivia Newton John as Sandy. 

We were laughing at 70 s American costumes while enjoying the music. Well, Ines had an idea to watch “Dirty dancing” with Patrick Swayze as Johnny and Jennifer Grey as Frances (baby). As a teenager apparently she watched it 12 times (I knew the score) . Well, luckily, we had Amazon prime Video and start watching. For girls and me it’s the second time and for Ines it’s the 13^th time. She was dancing happily to the music and we were all laughing and happy.

And we realised we are not talking any more about damn coronavirus. Life is beautiful. It’s up to us to live and cherish it. Viruses come and go. Humanity will survive.

Thank you corona.

“remember the last song. It goes like this:

Now I've had the time of my life
No, I never felt like this before
Yes I swear it's the truth
And I owe it all to you

'Cause I've had the time of my life
And I owe it all to you

Just remember
You're the one thing
I can't get enough of
So I'll tell you something
This could be love

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Herbert Spencer

"Survival of the Fittest" - Herbert Spencer 
"Natural Selection" -  Charles Darwin 
"Your loved ones will die " - Boris Johnson :)

Dear prime minister, you don't have to follow the ancestors to the letter.   It's our parents who took us to get close to other children who had  mumps, measles or Rubella  etc so we have the immunity.  And that was in  the 70s and 80s. We are now in 2020.

World wide death rate 

Herd immunity concept perhaps ok to apply for children where it's use has originated. However, when the death rate is increasing to 3.7% please think about population of 100,000. The number of deaths would be approximately 3700 . It will not be a small figure. Medial officers may be correct but at what cost.

increase in UK

China's total number of deaths gone down to 7. (Total deaths stand at 3180 and less than whole Europe. There are still 80991 confirmed cases and WHO still rank china as high risk. In Uk it's now 21. Perhaps it's time to follow China and do the unthinkable.

I know we can't close schools yet. If the parents stay away from work it will affect our economy. But you can ban the public gatherings. Offer more support to the elderly. Stop panic buying by people and introduce some rules to stop it. we may lose some of our freedom but it's for greater good.

Reference: WHO Situation Report

History of Plagues connected to 20s

From 420 BC Plague of Athens
*
*

1620 New England epidemic, Malaria (South America) 

1720 -  Great Plague of Marseilles

1820 -First cholera pandemic

1920 - Spanish Flue (pandemic), Sixth cholera pandemic

2020 - Covid-19 Corona Virus Pandemic 

2120 - AI Virus ? (Artificial Intelligence)

I am sure will not be here in 2120.  So people , don't worry. These things happen time to time in this world. 
get used to it. 

Follow China and stop the movement of people temporarily

One reason why China is managing to stop the virus is they are taking extreme measures to stop the virus spreading. What they did was to complete lock down of provinces and keeping people indoors by force.

That's what Europe should do now.

Follow the Chinese example.

This article says Italy have an ageing population and that's why the death rate is so high. So Italy is correct to lock down. it's not giving into panicking. They are taking a sensible step.

ANALYSIS: Why have there been so many coronavirus deaths in Italy?

Coronavirus - Chinese Connection and Big Pharma

Everyone speaks about corona virus . Apparently one can get a simple cold from it with a runny nose.  The new corona virus is a new strain or a mutation from other corona viruses which scientists found. This was called temporarily as 2019 -nCOV and however from 11th February WHO gave it a new name as  Covid-19.  

There are over 3600 people died from the virus so far. This is the recorded amount of death from hospitals. But what about the unrecorded deaths? Do they record the deaths from far away villages or in houses in China or in Iran?

However we can see china is fighting hard to contain the spreading of the virus.  It seems to me they are actually sacrificing a whole province of 50 million people to save the rest of the country and the world.  They have build a brand new hospital with 1000 beds and there are more in the pipeline. 


According to this article  What to know about coronaviruses world first found out about this virus in 1960. The simple cold caused by these coronaviruses are  OC43 and   229E. There are four varieties according the article. 

• 229E (alpha coronavirus) , NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
• OC43 (beta coronavirus)  ,HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

I have following questions:

The United States and the World Health Organization called on China to stop its biochemical laboratory in Wuhan in 2017 and build it elsewhere. They cite Wuhan as too crowded. In the event of a sudden bacterial or viral outbreak (leak), the situation can be difficult to control. The Chinese Academy of Science replied that the laboratory they were building is of category BSL-4. That means it's  being safe and having the highest standards and it would not  cause a problem. They also point out that there are two similar labs in Taiwan.  
Chinese scientists hoped to find about the SARS virus and MERS virus in this biological laboratory, so they must be stored there. These viruses are two fairly dangerous viruses known as "Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)," and "Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV)."

Here you can find the letter that caused this US request. Nature is one of the world's most famous scientific magazines. They have recently published  this article. They have inserted on top of the article this: "There is no link between the new China-based laboratory and the new corona virus". I would like to accept it as because Nature an important journal. Since I am a reader of that magazine, I know that they would not remove articles just because they were pressured into doing so. say. But that reference was included, saying it was the basis for many rumors.

But that's not the problem. Other related sources for this article is missing from the Google search engine. I read the World Health Organization (WHO) warning to China two months ago. But it is nowhere to be found now. Removed from the Internet. The US government announcement is also cannot be found. Why were they removed from Google and other search engines?

The new corona virus virus has just started to spread in 2019 from a market in Wuhan , according to a news release.

Now, I come to my second question. The idea is that the virus is transferred from infected  animals. That may be true. It has been found that Corona virus mutations are also common in animals. There is no debate on that. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has said that the SARS virus transferred from  civet cats and ordered them to be removed from the market. This finding was approved by the World Health Organization. China then claimed that it had stopped spreading the SARS virus. These details can be found on the Google search engine.

But on social networks, pictures and videos of Chinese people gorging on snakes, bats in soups and live mice  began circulating. Some were recorded  by Chinese and many vieos were originated from China. Therefore, it is widely believed established that the new virus were spreading from animals. But has anyone found it to be true? Scientifically?


On the other hand, the Chinese have been a nation that has been eating these type of meat  for centuries. Not only in China, but also in other parts of the Asian continent namely, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand Laos and Philippine some communities of people  eat these animal meat. They have not yet reported the disease. If the disease spreads, it is less likely to be spread by people who eat cooked food but by a cook like in that Hollywood film contagion. I have seen snakes and bats in Cambodia. 

 In this article, a scientist named Peter Dasuk states: He states that the SARS virus is present in bats and that the new corona virus is a cluster. But has this been proven yet experimentally?

But I do not accept the Biological Weapon Theory. There is a military biological weapons laboratory in the town of Porton down in England. This is where the the use of Russian radiation weapon use in Salisbury incident was exposed . In Russia, there are laboratories for such biological weapons, but they are not in the areas where people live. I think that will be the case in  in China too, controlled by the Chinese army and the government of China.

Now I want to focus on this article. That's the latest idea  about the new corona virus. This research paper was presented by a group of Indian biologists. This research article was published on January 10th at https://www.biorxiv.org/. . If you are a biological researcher please read the research details and explain if they are correct or not. Biology, is a subject that I am not that familiar with. The main idea of ​​this research article is 2019-nCov of the New Corona Virus ha some. Protein containers that are similar to HIV-1 GP120 and HIV-1 GAG viruses. This means that there are two variants of the AIDS virus. Anyone who wants this article I can send it,Or you can download from this link.. Any academic research article must be read by other scientists and approved by the scientific community. This is called peer review. It is said that this article did not properly analyzed the research data and draw incorrect conclusions. Therefore, the article has been withdrawn.

A group of Australian scientists have been able to produce the new corona virus under laboratory conditions.


At the same time, I think this observation is also important. Over the past two years, China has invested heavily in pharmaceutical companies and pharmaceutical products. India and China are the two main contenders for US and European markets. The article was published by Economics magazine a month before the new coronavirus virus arrived. The pharmaceutical industry in China is booming. The article, published in October of the same year (2019), states that China is using "artificial intelligence" to develop new type of drugs. 
Is the new virus just a mistake waiting to be happen and it happened? Can We find out the truth eventually?

Reference:

What to know about coronaviruses

Where Coronaviruses Come From

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens

The Wuhan Virus Is Not a Lab-Made Bioweapon

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

China investing heavily in AI to boost pharma sector, says analyst

China’s pharmaceuticals industry is growing up

WHO sees more evidence of civet role in SARS

The perfect designer virus - COVID -19

In a sense the COVID 19 new corona virus spread seems to be in line with some political ideology. Those who die first are those who have some chronic conditions or who have long term illnesses  diabetes. The cost of living and medication for people with these diseases will be reduced as death rate increased. The next most likely people to die are those over 60 years of age. Their pensions will be left available for  those countries budgets. It seems to me this virus designed specially for dictators like Hitler.

Children and adolescents and those under the age of 45 are often cured. Their symptoms are also not that severe. So, this corona virus is a perfect designer virus. If the virus was infected by a bat or other animal, then that creature is more talented than the creator it self.

Most of the factories in China are closed. Atmospheric pollution created by these factories were virtually stopped. Right-wing politicians, from Trump in America to Johnson in Britain to the Mullahs of Iran, have fallen into a fray, an economic nightmare. In near future, economic growth will slow down and unemployment will rise. A British airline carrier has already gone bankrupt.

This is probably a   conspiracy by the Communists. A secret underground leftist network trying to destabilize the whole world. When economies collapse that would create a fertile  ground for revolutions is it not?  

If this virus sent by God, this one surely is a strange one. It selected the sinners and elderly perfectly for now.  

(Written with sarcasm. Don't worry too much)