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Tuesday 31 March 2020

Problem with statistics ?

Please don't read this if the number of deaths from Covid-19 is stressing you out.


A blogger was suggesting that we take the Reproduction number 'R0' for statistical calculations as 1.5 (minimum value). The value for my initial calculations was 2.2 (middle value for R0). Using that value, I had predicted the number of infections and deaths in the UK by the 31st of March at 25141, with an increase of 3000 cases and 380 deaths (proportional value).

I just checked the news and found out that the number of deaths is 381 and the number of infections has passed 25,000, which is very sad.

My point is that we should all insist on the government to start carrying out Covid-19 tests for everyone suspected of having the virus. If found positive, they should be sent to the hospital. Also, anyone who has tested positive for immunity should return to work in order to save the economy. Others have to stay at home and stop the spread of the virus.

There are three people I know who have passed away from this virus in UK. For me, it has already become personal.

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