Problem with statistics ?

Please don't read this if the number of deaths from Covid-19 is stressing you out.

A blogger was suggesting that we take the Reproduction number 'R0' for statistical calculations as 1.5 (minimum value). The value for my initial calculations was 2.2 (middle value for R0). Using that value, I had predicted the number of infections and deaths in the UK by the 31st of March at 25141, with an increase of 3000 cases and 380 deaths (proportional value).

I just checked the news and found out that the number of deaths is 381 and the number of infections has passed 25,000, which is very sad.

My point is that we should all insist on the government to start carrying out Covid-19 tests for everyone suspected of having the virus. If found positive, they should be sent to the hospital. Also, anyone who has tested positive for immunity should return to work in order to save the economy. Others have to stay at home and stop the spread of the virus.

There are three people I know who have passed away from this virus in UK. For me, it has already become personal.

Picture: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like COVID-19

Is Germany doing better?

Germany seems to be doing something right among her neighbors namely Italy and Spain. Germany started separating people early on. With proper medical attention, Germany started doing tests for all the citizens who were suspected of having Covid-19. The result of this strategy is that, although the increase in infections shows an exponential nature, Germany's death rate is low.

It seems that by the end of this month Germany will reach the 60,000 (plus/minus 1000) mark for the number of infections. This is mainly due to some people who are ignoring the government's advice and shopping and travelling freely. However, the German government has now banned all travelling within states and cities. Also the fact that the number of people who have died from the coronavirus so far stands at 94. It looks like the number of deaths would be limited to around 200 plus/minus 20 by the end of this month. Well done to Germany.

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly

First Article:

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already admitted that Britain is in a crisis, and today he warned people to stay in self-isolation. He is absolutely correct, and perhaps most people know that already however there are a few who are still roaming the almost empty streets. To be clear, I am not writing this to make people upset or to give them an excuse to go and do some more panic buying.

I like to  do some number crunching and understand what the data is actually saying to me. Data from a few days ago shows that the relationship between the increase in infections and the death rate was directly proportionate. However, more recent data now shows that the relationship is exponential, as shown by the graphs below.

When this outbreak first came to greater attention a month ago, many pointed out that the rate of recovery was 97%. Many believed people should do as they please or that this will all blow over soon. I am also an eternal optimist but it is time to take this seriously.

Now, the death rate stands at 4.36% worldwide because of the Coronavirus. This means that if 100,000 people catch it, 4200 of them would die. China passed their peak sometime ago, and now it is Italy's turn. Two days ago, their number of deaths almost reached 800, and their total so far is already around 6000. My heart goes out to Italy and her people.

Last week I predicted that by the end of the month, the total number of infections in the UK would be around 12,000. However, with new figures coming in, I now see that the number could reach between 17,000 - 22,000 by the 1st of April.

To those who are still not convinced, the pictures and graphs below verify these predictions. The WHO predicted that each infected individual would pass the virus to 2.2 other people (the .2 here is also important). You can see how fast the number of cases would increase here:

Total number is increasing in a pattern of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc...

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
infected	1	2.2	4.4	8.8	17.6	35.2

 7 - 70.4
Crucially, as I mentioned earlier, the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths now show exponential characteristics. Therefore, I must update my prediction of the number of deaths by the end of this month to around 1046. After this, the UK will enter the peak of the infection.

This means that people who are most at risk should be especially careful in the period after the 1st of April. The only way to successfully reduce the peak is via social distancing and self isolation. Please do not try to gain immunity by having it.

Please remember that even if you recover, you may still end up with long-lasting damage to your lungs and even your liver or kidneys. Below I have attached articles based on scientific studies that outline how the Coronavirus is developing and how can affect you.

No one can be complacent about this.

Don't forget that this virus is mutating and the second strain is more aggressive than the first. It infected 70% of the people tested.

Happy Mother's Day to you all. If your parents are over 70, the best way to save your elderly mother is to do as Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises and just call her instead of visiting.

Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

Here’s What Happens to the Body After Contracting the Coronavirus

My previous article.

Kenny Rogers Good buy to a legend

Kenny Rogers 

I found out about Kenny Rogers' music after my friend Amara introduced me to the Listeners Afternoon Programme by the SLBC English Service. I think the presenter of the programme was one of the family of Coreas, and he always played nice songs from Engelbert Humperdink, Leo Sayer, etc. However, the country singer Kenny Rogers was one of my favourites.

While in the Soviet Union, we had a turntable in our room and I bought many records (some of which I still have) that were popular at the time - Kenny Rogers' among them. Selling his records in the Soviet Union was fortunately allowed, and they were even mass produced. I also had some cassettes of his music but because we have Youtube now, all of them were thrown out.

Kenny came from a poor family in Texas and turned into a world icon. His music was always very soothing and managed to lift your spirits - he entertained a whole generation with his songs. One of my favourite songs was "Island in the stream", sung with Dolly Parton.

Thank you, Kenny Rogers. You gave us many memorable songs and beautiful hours to cherish throughout our lives.

RIP Kenny Rogers

Song that I like: 'She believes in me'

From Corona to Socialism ??

Nalbandian, Dmitri Arkadevich - Collective farm Girl

While applauding Chancellor Rishi Sunak's "bending towards socialism" spending budget and money allocated for small businesses I cannot but think about the reason for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's reluctant to close schools is quite clear. (Schools will be closed from Friday). Main question was, WHO is going to look after the children? Unlike some Asian countries where grand parents are readily available to look after the offspring, in UK it's an expensive affair. Government cannot afford to lose NHS staff, Police and other essential workers if they are going to stay at home looking after the children

I was talking to a friend of mine and told him the answer lies with  Soviet union's method of looking after the children. They had child care centers where parents can leave even the smallest children safely. I remember in East Germany had similar child care centers. Child care workers who worked were highly educated unlike UK. Most of them had university diplomas (degree level education).

Yes, there were lot of problems in former Soviet union. We know that. That's why it collapsed. However, we can still absorb the good parts. 
This is one of them.

Other one was chicken. We hate soviet chicken, literally.
Very difficult to cut. We thought the meat was difficult to eat, like rubber. 

Someone has said that, they were keeping these chicken in freezers for 6-7 months to face nuclear war or similar disaster and releasing them to people when they are near to expire. According to him, that's why these chicken are like that.

I know now the answer. They were from collective farms. (yes, we don't like them. ok) Chicken were reared such a way that they were organic. Unlike broiler chicken or 28 day chicken we eat nowadays these chicken were reared allowing them to roam the farm land, like village chicken one could find in countries like  Sri lanka.

Third point was that a Russian man or babushka (old grand ma) carrying same old bag each time when they went to a shop or market. I remember we actually laughed at it. These bags look old and not so cool to us. We carried  plastic bags we took  from western capitals proudly.

Beautiful ladies carried these plastic bags with admiration.

And, I am now carrying same recycling old bag each time when I  to go to supermarket. because we are destroying our climate.
This is New cool.

And my friend moans again. 
"Ajith, you always talked about Soviet union and blaming us for it's demise.

What we have done?"

I relied to him.
"Nothing,"

We, including I simply did nothing. 

Picture was copied from here: The Collective Farm Girl

Corona cannot defeat us

All four of us sit together yesterday after long time. Both daughters were busy with studies for long. They are doing A/level and elder one Shania is always busy  with her arts. Well we start discussing Corona. Yes, that one. Then it’s happened that I had Grease – theatrical musical later turn into a cinema with John Travolta  as Danny and Olivia Newton John as Sandy. 

We were laughing at 70 s American costumes while enjoying the music. Well, Ines had an idea to watch “Dirty dancing” with Patrick Swayze as Johnny and Jennifer Grey as Frances (baby). As a teenager apparently she watched it 12 times (I knew the score) . Well, luckily, we had Amazon prime Video and start watching. For girls and me it’s the second time and for Ines it’s the 13^th time. She was dancing happily to the music and we were all laughing and happy.

And we realised we are not talking any more about damn coronavirus. Life is beautiful. It’s up to us to live and cherish it. Viruses come and go. Humanity will survive.

Thank you corona.

“remember the last song. It goes like this:

Now I've had the time of my life
No, I never felt like this before
Yes I swear it's the truth
And I owe it all to you

'Cause I've had the time of my life
And I owe it all to you

Just remember
You're the one thing
I can't get enough of
So I'll tell you something
This could be love

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Herbert Spencer

"Survival of the Fittest" - Herbert Spencer 
"Natural Selection" -  Charles Darwin 
"Your loved ones will die " - Boris Johnson :)

Dear prime minister, you don't have to follow the ancestors to the letter.   It's our parents who took us to get close to other children who had  mumps, measles or Rubella  etc so we have the immunity.  And that was in  the 70s and 80s. We are now in 2020.

World wide death rate 

Herd immunity concept perhaps ok to apply for children where it's use has originated. However, when the death rate is increasing to 3.7% please think about population of 100,000. The number of deaths would be approximately 3700 . It will not be a small figure. Medial officers may be correct but at what cost.

increase in UK

China's total number of deaths gone down to 7. (Total deaths stand at 3180 and less than whole Europe. There are still 80991 confirmed cases and WHO still rank china as high risk. In Uk it's now 21. Perhaps it's time to follow China and do the unthinkable.

I know we can't close schools yet. If the parents stay away from work it will affect our economy. But you can ban the public gatherings. Offer more support to the elderly. Stop panic buying by people and introduce some rules to stop it. we may lose some of our freedom but it's for greater good.

Reference: WHO Situation Report