Saint Petersberg To Moscow , Train Journey Episode 15

St Petertsberg to Moscow Train Journey Episode 14

උපුටා ගැනීමේදී කරුණාකර යොමුව ඇතුලත් කරන්න.

Saint Petersberg to Moscow train Journey 13, Moscow Suburb

උපුටා ගැනීමේදී කරුණාකර යොමුව ඇතුලත් කරන්න.

Comments for the post !Are Asians 'third-class citizens' in the UK?"

I have received following comments in facebook for the article 

Are Asians 'third-class citizens' in the UK?

I will post them as a new blog post.

Pradeep Jayatunga

I don't know about citizens but can talk as one who has been travelling to uk whenever time and money allows since 2004. It is mostly the perception. Once I was with a SL guy in a pub and he suddenly said the white guys are laughing or mocking us. i looked up and saw some people having fun among themselves. In fact when i was alone they were quite friendly towards me. Of course i am interested in the culture, history (in fact when it comes to history of the british isles i found that i know more than most native brits i've come across) and small not normally noticed quaint British stuff. So, i talk to them whenever i can. Only instances of racial insult i ever had were by unemployed drunken Welsh youth in Swansea and a slight unpleasantness by Black brit in london. That type of Welsh resent the Engish people too. Thimgs like that happen when you walk im slum areas of colombo or by threewheeler guys cutting across you. Uncivilized louts of any country and of any colour are the same.

I have found both the educated and upperclass people everywhere and also villagers, farmers and everyone in rural villages in england and scotland unfailingly friendly, polite and helpful to visitors as SL village folk. (People who make money from tourists are anyway polite. I am talking of others. )

Anyway, i have felt more equal in UK than i have felt in SL when i get pushed to the side of the road by VIP motorcades!

P. S. As i said, i say this as a traveller in UK who has spent a combined total of about 6 months in scotland wales and england, not as a citizen. Also i am very interested in small and subtle things in UK. So i take trouble to analyse things and i have time as a tourist. But some ppl having to live and work there do not like it and resent the country but do it to earn a livelihood , so they resent everything and take even unintended things as insulting. It is more to do with human nature of individuals (both white and others) than any social, political or institutional problem.

Ravi Shankar

When I visited Srilanka few years back one of my Sinhalese friend asked me whether I was treated as second class citizen in UK  and my workplace. My answer to him is Britan is multicultural country and if I have talent and work hard I will be recognised and given right place and promotions. But in srilanka As a Tamil I will be treated as third class citizen . This happened to my father. When Sinhala only amendment introduced by late prime ministers Bandaranayaka many English educated Tamils migrated to UK , Australia , New Zealand , and Canada , including my father’s relatives how ever my father stayed back and learned Sinhalese and started wishing in Sinhala majority areas in srilanka but he was not given promotion or recognition compared to his junior Sinhalese work colleges . When he retired from his work he mentioned that he made a big mistake the he didn’t fallow his Tamil colleagues and migrate from srilanka.

My answer to the question is better to be a second class citizen in a different country than be a third class citizen in your own country.

Nandana Weerarathne

For a better discussion one should translate it to Sinhala from lingua franca of South Asia ..

Ianthi Abeysekara

UK is one of the most generous and diverse countries in the world,Unless you choose to live like a third class citizen, If you are hard working and want to get somewhere in life this is the country to be, How many Asian have you seen in top class jobs, you can be a third class citizen in your own country, depends on your mindset

Punsara Amarasinghe

Well described piece ! This will be a good answer for those who are eagerly waiting to see how England would be a poor country in the aftermath of Corona ! They have that morbid pleasure !

Picture from: https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/12/emotional-impact-watching-white-people-wake-racism-real-time-12839920/

Are Asians 'third-class citizens' in the UK?

A very good friend of mine, Jeevana Fernando, wrote this on his wall: //'You know more than me, being in a country where most of the Asians are living as third class citizens.'// he was addressing one of his friends who lives in UK.

I fully agree that Sri Lanka's tourism board is trying to do whatever it can to revitalise post Covid-19 tourism for the island. Their proposal of providing PCR tests on arrival and then after 7 days, for a price, is the correct approach. Tourists can freely visit their desired locations in the country. Very commendable. However, while replying to his friend, Jeevana mentioned that Asians are living in the UK as third class citizens.  I wonder if he is correct, and if most of my South Asian friends would agree to his opinion?

 

Personally, I think the United Kingdom is one of the most tolerant countries in Europe. Having said that, I have been visiting Germany for the past 25 years and, apart from only one occasion flying with Lufthansa, I have never felt any racism from Germans either. On that flight, one eager flight attendant repeatedly asked my German wife whether she wanted to move her seat. She perhaps thought that a white, blond and blue-eyed woman should not sit next to me. That was the last time we used Lufthansa and it was in 1997.

We cannot deny that institutional racism and other problems exist in the UK. For that matter, part of the Black, Bangladeshi and Pakistani population are known to be more discriminated against when being considered for job opportunities. But these discriminatory practices are more widespread in the rest of Europe than in the UK. Even in Sri Lanka, there have been so many discriminatory practices against other ethnic communities; I have even heard of discriminatory practices against ones cast.

I was once called 'Paki' near where I live, when I was walking with my daughters down Hertford road. This was from some white or Eastern European teenagers who lived in the council blocks nearby. I take it that they were perhaps more disadvantaged than me, and jealousy kicked in. That happens. 

I do not want to take away any of the spotlight from the Black Lives Matter movement, as black people are the most disadvantaged in UK and Europe. However, that does not mean they are living in abject poverty. Here in London, you can see plenty of black ladies and gents driving 4x4s and expensive BMWs or land rovers, whilst living in tower blocks. Most of them have decent jobs; there are  teachers, doctors, judges, singers, famous footballers, etc. Having said that, we should acknowledge that there is a lot of indirect racism aimed at them, as F1 champion Lewis Hamilton mentioned the other day.

As far as I know, there are only two classes in UK. One is the class that owns the biggest businesses, land and capital. The other class works for them. All of the aristocracy (Lords and Ladies to you, my friend) belong to one class, and rest of us are in the shit class, whether you are South Asian or not.

Mr Jeevana Fernando should come and pay a visit to white working-class areas in the UK. They are living in council houses, and their job opportunities are not great. That's why, even though some of them were Labour supporters, they have voted to leave the EU. Then again, the UK has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Europe at around 4.5%.

To be honest, does Jeevana think Sri Lanka hasn't got any class divisions? Sri Lankans can't even buy a decent car without dishing out around £10-15,000 GBP for an old banger, while we can buy a decent Mercedes Benz or BMW for half the price. In Sri Lanka, only politicians, aristocratic government bureaucrats, engineers, doctors, and provisional councillors are allowed to import cars at reduced prices. Then they resell them at exorbitant prices to second-class John Does. What an injustice. In the UK, no one prohibits us South Asians from buying decent houses, cars and holidays. Sorry Jeevana, I cannot agree with you.

I'd like to hear the opinions of my fellow South Asians, as well as my white English friends on this subject. Some of my white English friends supported Sri Lanka when the 2004 Tsunami struck the island. Generally, we have faced problems at the workplace from immature white folk, who engage in subtle racism, such as accusing us of 'stealing' work placements or, alternatively, blocking us from higher positions or demanding twice as much effort and education to prove we are qualified. But the majority of them do not behave like that. This resentful minority exists in most countries, including Sri Lanka.

Cartoon by Avantha Atigala 

P.S. - I do not have any problems with the SLTB proposal to bring back the tourist to the country and also the excellent response to Covid 19 pandemic by the GOSL and the health authorities of Sri Lanka.

Jeevana's original post:

//'First of all I have to say that I am ashamed of myself being a classmate of you Collins Delwita. Sri Lanka is struggling to restart Tourism of the destination in a manner which do not affect the health and safety of general public of the country. You know more than me, being in a country where most of the Asians are living as third class citizens, have 14 days of mandatory quarantine for people who arrive from overseas, where Sri Lanka do not imposed for Tourists . Still you are complaining about the restrictions on tourist to use public transport, if do so the ability of identification of Covid 19 Clusters get loose which tends to be the start of a second wave. With your Social Media posts, you are trying deteriorate the image of the Tourism Industry of Sri Lanka even among the prospective tourists within your circle. Please do not mortgage your self dignity for a political party and betray your Mother Land.'//

St Petersberg to Moscow Train Journey Episode 12

St Petersberg to Moscow 11 - Approaching Moscow 2

Rioters and looters Lost and President Trump won - Is this a setup?

Earlier this months the death toll from Covid-19 was increasing in alarming rate in United States. President Trump was attracting heavy criticism.

And then George Floyd happened. Please don't misunderstand me. I condemn wholeheartedly that violent act by the police officer. It was an unnecessary death. 

Here is the one disturbing information. The police officer and the victim worked in a same night club as bouncers. It could be an old grudge, settling of scores. I don't know. It felt wrong.

But, some of the demonstrators played directly into Presidents Trumps hand. They have rioted and most importantly looted property. I am not judging that either.

Hold on a second, suddenly president Trump is off the hook.

The death toll by corona virus reached 100,000 without anyone mentioning it.t. It's now stand at 107841 deaths. About 916 people died today alone. No news organisations talking about it anymore. All the news channels attending riots.

There was no social distancing observed by the protesters. If there are deaths from Covid 19 you can't blame Trump's incompetence anymore. People themselves are responsible for getting the virus  now on. They did not observe the safe distance advice. 

And then most of the troublemakers for Trump will be ill in the near future. I hope it will not be the case, but this incident  helped America to forget death toll of  over 100000 and incompetent president who presided over it.

There will be presidential election in November and President Trump will win this election.

It seems to me that this whole thing was a set up. Just as the Covid 19 could well be a designer virus.

Is it possible this is a set up?

I am updating this post today on the 6th of June 2020.

The death toll in united States 111716. In UK it is 40,465. In Brazil it is 35211. Covid 19 spreading very fast among indigenous population. Who is benefiting from it? Those companies Brazilian president want to introduce to the Amazon forest for mining and other activities. Think about it?  

Despite the fact that BAME people are more prone to get Covid 19 and die there are huge demonstrations. I can't blame them.

But someone can ask? If you can go to demonstration you can go to work as well? If you ar not observing social distancing in your demonstration you don't have to have that in a workplace?

 I have to ask again? Is this murder is really  a setup?

St. Peters-berg to Moscow Train Journey 10 - Approaching Moscow

Approaching Moscow 

The Beautiful Essence Of Lock Down

my sister called me,

brother,

it's over thirty thousand 

are you not afraid 

to live there 

mother just spoke to me 

we are all afraid 

for you 

my dear sister,

it's over thirty thousand 

we have a problem 

or maybe not 

johnson is a bit late,

he was hurrying 

at lightening speed 

to get us out of

big bad europe 

but the response to covid

is going at slower pace

can't you see the 

cheeky turtle

who defeated that 

lazy running hare  

i will speak to mum 

she is afraid too, 

my dearest son,

our dear president

accepts all, who are arriving

from far abroad

are you crazy mum, 

leave daughters and her

how

even if i could

they would never come

 

today with our neighbours 

we are having a barbecue 

i hope you don't mind 

if i smoke a cigar

 

father used to smoke 

those smelly jaffna cigars

what a fine smell, but if i had them,

covid 19 would die of that smell

by the way, I am  

dancing with my wife

to those old tunes 

we used to listen to 

when we were dating

do whatever 

you never listened to me anyway

i was worshiping the gods 

and lord buddha 

begged them to save you 

from this nasty illness

death can come to anybody 

at anytime mum

it could come today or tomorrow 

or even in ten years

if i can

i will come in august

to see you 

 

oh, i didn't tell mum this 

life is here  

to feel the joyous moments 

instead of suffering, 

rather than living 

in fear of darkness

let's live in the moment 

happily ever after 

you don't need 

a whiskey single malt

or roasted meat and cigar havana,  

it's enough to have 

some coconut toddy,

tapioca maiyok and chili paste  

giveth one

the same happiness 

wherever you are

The Beautiful Essence Of

Lock Down

Picture is from this site 

Easing the Lock Down

Easing the Lock Down 

***********************

(If you re going to get upset with these numbers please walk away from the post) 

Prime minister Boris Johnson's  Government will take a decision on easing the lockdown on Sunday. I was doing some calculations since 1st of March and this is my recent calculations and predictions.

As you can see from the pictures people generally do not worry about the pandemic much. They do play in the parks and I have seen most were in groups without any social distancing. I did not take close pictures as to respect the privacy.

For the following calculations several assumptions were made:

1. People would largely ignore the lockdown rules.

2. Most retails shops, pubs and restaurants are open.

3. Reproduction value is 1.1 and everyday one person would  infect at least one other person.

Today the 8th of May we have 211,364 covid-19 infected patients.  The Increase from yesterday's total was 4649.  Number of deaths were 31,241. If we take the reproduction value as 1.1 (this is the closest number I arrived looking at the data from 1st of March) tomorrow the number of  patients would increase to 216,478 patients. This  number will grow close to 259,900 by the 15th of May.  Predicted number of deaths would be 38,400. (as a proportional increment) Do not forget that we will have asymptomatic carriers and their number would also increase by twofold. 

As lockdown  eases we will have the infection rate increase briefly.  On the 26th of May we would  have close to 450,000 infected. Number of predicted deaths would be close to 59,000 to 60,000.  However curve should be going down by then.  We may have unrecognised patients upto 900,000 if reproduction value is 2.2 by then. But if we carry on with reproduction value of 1.1, then  by the 07th of June we will have over one million infected. But in this case if we are not careful the  number of deaths may rise upto 90,000. However, by this time curve  should have downward trend.

By the time we reach 3.5 million infected number of deaths may rise up to 150,000. These figures can only be true if the country will go back to work fully and all the pubs and restaurants are open. I think the only way to stop this is happening is to increase number of testing by tenfold and enforce social distancing whenever possible.

This number of infected will rise to 8 million by the 30th of June. With the symptomatic carriers this figure could be even 16 million. However by this time the number of deaths should be around 200,000. Even though this number is high, the rate of infections and deaths would  be going down significantly by then. This figure may well be the  maximum number of deaths we may reach. This is only a prediction and it is quite possible that number of deaths may not reach to this level. 

Flexibility of Capitalism and world's oldest profession in "Corona Time"

I remember reading about women who were kept as "City beauties" in India. They were high class escort girls. They went out with Kings, Princes  and rich tradesman. They could read, write, sing and dance. In victorian England, despite high moral crusades there were many brothels and prostitutes. These days  coronavirus pandemic caused most self employed people lay down their tools of trade.. Sex workers were the ones perhaps hit the most hardest as they cannot engage in their normal activity to earn money. They cannot request government help as they are not recognised as workers. they don't pay any government taxes. 

However there is a social media aspect in this trade as well. They can engage in cyber sex in vitual space and still earn some money. I heard that type of sites earning more than any other retail sites.  

As the pictures below shows, men and even women paying for certain services that one or two  women can engage. Perhaps they would keep safe distance. perhaps two is not a crowd.

Capitalism gave them a chance where socialism would have failed. Why is that?

These pictures were taken from twitter account of Whores of Yore.     These City girls were from victorian England. 

This above picture's author anonymous.

 Pictures below By Otto Rudolf Schatz (1900-61), an Austrian painter and printmaker known for his Expressionist style and erotic drawing.

These artworks from  Artwork of Chéri Hérouard (1881 - 1961)

Pictures were from https://twitter.com/WhoresofYore

St petersberg to Moscow Train Journey 9

St Petersburg to Moscow Train Journey 8

St Petersburg to Moscow Train 7

St Petersburg to Moscow Train 6

St Petersburg to Moscow Train Journey 5

උපුටා ගැනීමේදී කරුණාකර යොමුව ඇතුලත් කරන්න.

Story about a tyre swing

We have a small, green open space in front of our house. In a place like London, any open space is very valuable. This open space, run by the Enfield Council, has four small roads going round it, making it a square. Our houses are surrounding this little square. It has two grass mounds on both sides and a few trees, including a cherry tree. During lock-down, all the surrounding parks are closed, so I've noticed a few more people coming to this square instead. They take pictures of themselves, some with kids, presumably to post on social media. Some dance in front of the camera, maybe to post videos on Tik-tok. 

Some families come and put their little ones onto the tyre swing we have hanging on one of the trees. They enjoy it, taking photos and videos of themselves in the sun. Some teenagers hang around swinging the tyre and taking pictures as well.

Around a decade and half ago, someone stole the tyre, or perhaps some council jobsworth removed it. 

When I was 8 or 9 years old, I lived in a small village called Lunugala in Sri-Lanka. A friend and I sometimes used to push a tyre along a road called White Sand road. It went down steeply to a small stream and then back up the hill side again.  We enjoyed this activity immensely repeating it day by day. 

I told this story to my neighbour Brian. He was a retired traffic sergeant from the British transport police. He was always a die-hard Tory and I was, and still am, a half-hearted Labour supporter. A lot of friendly arguments ensued - he with his cigar and glass of whiskey, I with my glass of vodka. Whatever the heated discussion was, we always remained as friendly as can be. He was a good neighbour and a good friend to me, and in return I would offer whichever help I could give to him. We used to share German cakes my wife Ines baked as well as the occasional curry with him, and he once fixed our boiler.

Anyway, back to the tyre. After hearing my story, Brian suggested we hang another tyre on the branch. So he fixed the tyre to the tree, and many kids (including mine) swung along happily. 

Brian passed away a few years back, and we have new neighbours now. Someone stole the tyre again. Knowing Brian and I were the ones who hung up this tyre, another neighbour called Robert managed to replace the swing with his own tyre.

Robert also passed away couple of years back.

Their kind gestures are still out there, making big and little people happy just the same. Sometimes teenagers spend their time swinging happily from it and fooling around. People walking along the small pathway nearby also visit sometimes.

And sometimes, that's all that matters. Small insignificant gestures.

Ajith 

St Petersburg (Leningrad) to Moscow Train journey - 4

St Petersburg (Leningrad) to Moscow Train journey -3

St Petersburg (Leningrad) to Moscow Train journey - 2

St Petersburg (Leningrad) to Moscow Train journey - 1

Speed of this train is 250 kilometers per hour

Turtle Love Making

උපුටා ගැනීමේදී කරුණාකර යොමුව ඇතුලත් කරන්න.

Turtles

උපුටා ගැනීමේදී කරුණාකර යොමුව ඇතුලත් කරන්න.

Steam train lake district

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUxhbQXJJ-E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUxhbQXJJ-E

For Italy

When I was studying in the Soviet Union during the '80s, foreign music (apart from English) was generally very popular. Among the European genre, many of us liked the Italian and Spanish songs; they were often played in discos and bars around Moscow. Record disks produced in the USSR were available to buy. Famous Italian singers included Adriano Celentano, Ricci, Poveri, and Toto Cutugno (a personal favourite).

We visited Italy in 2015; the people were very friendly and we have always loved Italian food. We ate many different pasta dishes, and enjoyed large thin pizzas in local Venetian restaurants. We tried foods like bottarga, lasagna, ribollita, carbonara, etc, and all were delicious. When the kids didn't know what they wanted to eat, pizza or spaghetti always worked.

In Italy, it is not only the food that makes it remarkable. Their rich history combined with the charming cities of Verona, Venice and Pisa; the famous Vatican; the story of Pinocchio and the beautiful ladies with long black hair is what will always bind us to Italy.

Right now, Italy is going through a difficult period alongside the rest of Europe. However, we can see that the number of deaths from Covid-19 are reducing and the curve of its graph is starting to bend downwards. I sincerely hope Italy has now passed its peak, and that this beautiful country will soon get back on its feet.

For me, Toto Cutugno's song "L'italiano" epitomises the Italian spirit.

Viva Italia 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYtdYslLY9I

The Italian

Let me sing

with a guitar in my hand

Let me sing

I am Italian.

 

Good Morning Italy with your spaghetti

and your partisan for President

with my hand on the radio

and a canary on the window

 

Good Morning Italy with your artists

with your many American posters

with your songs of love

with kind hearts

with more women still less nuns (more women not becoming nuns?)

 

Good Morning Italy

Good Morning Mother Mary

with eyes full of sadness

Good Morning God

I know you know I am here.

 

Let me sing

with a guitar in hand

Let me sing

a song, slowly, slowly

Let me sing

because I am proud

I am an Italian

A genuine/real Italian.

 

Good Morning Italy who doesn't scare

with peppermint flavored toothpaste

with a pinstripe blue suit

with slow moving Sundays on TV

Good Morning Italy with extra-strong espresso coffee

the new sock from the drawer

with the clean flag (flag that switched sides/flag that was clean)

a 600 (type of car I can't think of)

 

Good Morning Italy

Good Morning Mother Mary

with eyes full of sadness

Good Morning God

I know you know I'm here.

 

Let me sing

with a guitar in my hand

Let me sing

a song, slowly, slowly

Let me sing

because I am proud

I am Italian

A genuine/real Italian.

https://lyricstranslate.com/en/l%E2%80%99italiano-italian.html-0

To the Unknown

In our little garden 

Cherry flowers 

blooming again,

small little white flowerlings

nature does not stop

nurturing the life around,

on any other day 

would fill my heart with joy

but today, on Good Friday

Six thousand and many hundreds 

of unknown souls 

left the land of living

without loved ones beside them

life and death

is all we have  

in a fleeting moment

called living

All I can do is

to dedicate the April flowers

of a small cherry tree

to the departed unknown You

--Ajith

Why Lock-down should work - Virus Bottleneck

In a situation like the Deuterium Bottleneck, if the availability of deuterium is too low then the necessary nuclear fusion does not happen. (See link below for BigBang Nucleosynthesis). This can be used as a comparison to the spread of a virus. (One can also use  as an example -The Plasmodium bottleneck: malaria parasite losses in the mosquito vector -Wiki)

Let's assume you live in a village with 1000 people. Take the average value of R0* as 2.2 (calculated from various WHO-sanctioned studies) and the number of infected people on Day 1 as just 1. Let's also assume that everyday 2.2 people will be infected for certain.If we calculate the total number of infected people on Day 2, it would amount to 1 + 2.2 = 3.2. This would result in the number of people infected per day increasing to 1005 by Day 09. Therefore, by this time, all 1000 people in your village are already infected. But incubation period is 2-14 and not everyone will show the symptoms.

Below graph will show if the original value multiply by 2, 4,8,32 etc and (lower blue) and if we add the previous days figure (orange)

Now, let's take a lower value of R0 = 1.5. Using this value, we can work out that all 1000 people will be infected by Day 18. 

If we apply the worldwide death rate (5.5%) to the village of 1000 people, 55 of them will have died from the virus. Its incubation period is 2-14 days. If we were to lock down the whole village on Day 5 and prevent any contact between people, the virus would reach its bottleneck. After initial infection, it will not be able to infect anyone again. Therefore, if we test everyone else and advise healthy people to stay away, the total number of deaths could shockingly be reduced to only 1 or 2.

However, these figures could vary for many reasons. For example, some people may hide their infected status or just not volunteer to be tested (as seen in some cases in Sri Lanka). In that case, the virus will keep spreading, but will be significantly mitigated by the lock-down.

However, virus will stop spreading once when movement of people restricted and when the most serious cases would not recover. Those who will recover will have the immunity from the Covid-19.

We can apply this model to a city with 100000 people. With complete lock-down only 1-2 people will die for every 1000.  You will have 100-200 deaths and if it is one million you will have 1000-2000 deaths.  But to get that result we assume a city should be totally lock down for at least 2 cycles of incubation period (28 days) banning all movement.

Countries adopting this type of model successfully are China, South Korea and Germany. In Sri Lanka's case there are lot of patients still unaccounted for which hinder the effect of lock-down.

*basic reproduction number (see link below)

Formula used - ((1-R0ⁿ)/(1-R0)) , n is the day 

(Special help - Shakyra Dharma)

BBN - Reactions Explained

https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html

Recurrent bottlenecks in the malaria life cycle obscure signals of positive selection

Problem with statistics ?

Please don't read this if the number of deaths from Covid-19 is stressing you out.

A blogger was suggesting that we take the Reproduction number 'R0' for statistical calculations as 1.5 (minimum value). The value for my initial calculations was 2.2 (middle value for R0). Using that value, I had predicted the number of infections and deaths in the UK by the 31st of March at 25141, with an increase of 3000 cases and 380 deaths (proportional value).

I just checked the news and found out that the number of deaths is 381 and the number of infections has passed 25,000, which is very sad.

My point is that we should all insist on the government to start carrying out Covid-19 tests for everyone suspected of having the virus. If found positive, they should be sent to the hospital. Also, anyone who has tested positive for immunity should return to work in order to save the economy. Others have to stay at home and stop the spread of the virus.

There are three people I know who have passed away from this virus in UK. For me, it has already become personal.

Picture: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like COVID-19

Is Germany doing better?

Germany seems to be doing something right among her neighbors namely Italy and Spain. Germany started separating people early on. With proper medical attention, Germany started doing tests for all the citizens who were suspected of having Covid-19. The result of this strategy is that, although the increase in infections shows an exponential nature, Germany's death rate is low.

It seems that by the end of this month Germany will reach the 60,000 (plus/minus 1000) mark for the number of infections. This is mainly due to some people who are ignoring the government's advice and shopping and travelling freely. However, the German government has now banned all travelling within states and cities. Also the fact that the number of people who have died from the coronavirus so far stands at 94. It looks like the number of deaths would be limited to around 200 plus/minus 20 by the end of this month. Well done to Germany.

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly

First Article:

Survival of the fittest or the Rule of the Jungle

Can we be complacent _ The Second strain is more deadly 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already admitted that Britain is in a crisis, and today he warned people to stay in self-isolation. He is absolutely correct, and perhaps most people know that already however there are a few who are still roaming the almost empty streets. To be clear, I am not writing this to make people upset or to give them an excuse to go and do some more panic buying.

I like to  do some number crunching and understand what the data is actually saying to me. Data from a few days ago shows that the relationship between the increase in infections and the death rate was directly proportionate. However, more recent data now shows that the relationship is exponential, as shown by the graphs below.

When this outbreak first came to greater attention a month ago, many pointed out that the rate of recovery was 97%. Many believed people should do as they please or that this will all blow over soon. I am also an eternal optimist but it is time to take this seriously.

Now, the death rate stands at 4.36% worldwide because of the Coronavirus. This means that if 100,000 people catch it, 4200 of them would die. China passed their peak sometime ago, and now it is Italy's turn. Two days ago, their number of deaths almost reached 800, and their total so far is already around 6000. My heart goes out to Italy and her people.

Last week I predicted that by the end of the month, the total number of infections in the UK would be around 12,000. However, with new figures coming in, I now see that the number could reach between 17,000 - 22,000 by the 1st of April.

To those who are still not convinced, the pictures and graphs below verify these predictions. The WHO predicted that each infected individual would pass the virus to 2.2 other people (the .2 here is also important). You can see how fast the number of cases would increase here:

Total number is increasing in a pattern of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc...

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
infected	1	2.2	4.4	8.8	17.6	35.2

 7 - 70.4
Crucially, as I mentioned earlier, the increase in the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths now show exponential characteristics. Therefore, I must update my prediction of the number of deaths by the end of this month to around 1046. After this, the UK will enter the peak of the infection.

This means that people who are most at risk should be especially careful in the period after the 1st of April. The only way to successfully reduce the peak is via social distancing and self isolation. Please do not try to gain immunity by having it.

Please remember that even if you recover, you may still end up with long-lasting damage to your lungs and even your liver or kidneys. Below I have attached articles based on scientific studies that outline how the Coronavirus is developing and how can affect you.

No one can be complacent about this.

Don't forget that this virus is mutating and the second strain is more aggressive than the first. It infected 70% of the people tested.

Happy Mother's Day to you all. If your parents are over 70, the best way to save your elderly mother is to do as Prime Minister Boris Johnson advises and just call her instead of visiting.

Coronavirus is mutating: Chinese scientists find second strain

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Here’s what coronavirus does to the body

Here’s What Happens to the Body After Contracting the Coronavirus

My previous article.

Kenny Rogers Good buy to a legend

Kenny Rogers 

I found out about Kenny Rogers' music after my friend Amara introduced me to the Listeners Afternoon Programme by the SLBC English Service. I think the presenter of the programme was one of the family of Coreas, and he always played nice songs from Engelbert Humperdink, Leo Sayer, etc. However, the country singer Kenny Rogers was one of my favourites.

While in the Soviet Union, we had a turntable in our room and I bought many records (some of which I still have) that were popular at the time - Kenny Rogers' among them. Selling his records in the Soviet Union was fortunately allowed, and they were even mass produced. I also had some cassettes of his music but because we have Youtube now, all of them were thrown out.

Kenny came from a poor family in Texas and turned into a world icon. His music was always very soothing and managed to lift your spirits - he entertained a whole generation with his songs. One of my favourite songs was "Island in the stream", sung with Dolly Parton.

Thank you, Kenny Rogers. You gave us many memorable songs and beautiful hours to cherish throughout our lives.

RIP Kenny Rogers

Song that I like: 'She believes in me'